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2006-04-07, 23:26

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Jacks or Better Caribbean Stud A couple already has two daughters. What is the probability that the next child is a son? (Answer: 0.5) [if we assume the gender of a child is completely random, and that a male or female child is equally likely, either or both of which may be incorrect.] Example: The player originally bets $10 and the dealer shows an Ace. The player takes Insurance by betting an additional amount of $5. Suppose the player's hand is 19. The dealer turns up his 'hole card' after the Insurance betting period is over -- and it's not a 10-valued card. Suppose the 'hole card' is a 7. The player instantly loses his $5 Insurance wager. (All Insurance wagers are settled as soon as the dealer turns over his 'hole card', before all else.) But the player wins his $10 bet. Note that the player made a net profit on that round. Common gaming machines In Baccarat Chemin de Fer, it will have been noticed that a given bank only continues so long as the banker wins. So soon as he loses, it passes to another player. In Baccarat Banque the position of banker is much more permanent. Three packs of cards are shuffled together. (The number is not absolute, sometimes four packs, sometimes two only, being used; but three is the more usual number.) The banker (unless he retires either of his own free will or by reason of the exhaustion of his finances) holds office until all these cards have been dealt. When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. Another interesting legend I turned up about the origins of the game said that the wheel's inventor actually sold his soul to Satan for it. That one's pretty tough to prove, but an interesting coincidence (or is it?) is that if you add up all the numbers on the Roulette wheel, the total is 666. I'm not sure if that makes me more prone to bet on red or black. An example: coin-tossing double-down restrictions: double-down allowed only on certain combinations. [edit] The outcome of future events can be affected if external factors are allowed to change the probability of the events (e.g. changes in the rules of a game affecting a sports team's performance levels). Sometimes, gamblers argue, "I just lost four times. Since the coin is fair and therefore in the long run everything has to even out, if I just keep playing, I will eventually win my money back." However, it is irrational to look at things "in the long run" starting from before he started playing; he ought to consider that in the long run from where he is now, he could expect everything to even out to his current point, which is four losses down. Video poker Probably the only bad thing about online casinos is that you can't bring a lady and charm her up, but then again if you already have a lady in your house you would not take her to play computer games now would you? Blackjack is a mathematical game. Given a dealer upcard and your hand, there's always just one move you should make. Perfect Blackjack tells you what the correct move is. Basic strategy tables Another interesting legend I turned up about the origins of the game said that the wheel's inventor actually sold his soul to Satan for it. That one's pretty tough to prove, but an interesting coincidence (or is it?) is that if you add up all the numbers on the Roulette wheel, the total is 666. I'm not sure if that makes me more prone to bet on red or black.

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2006-04-07, 23:26